Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.345197 2.838995 3.395071 4.065219 4.848337 5.731832 6.801197
2025-04-27 1.701315 2.340046 3.139546 4.203415 5.570176 7.254193 9.471450
2025-05-04 1.331826 2.041936 3.012971 4.413818 6.354269 8.914461 12.508038
2025-05-11 1.019156 1.725505 2.771437 4.391603 6.786433 10.134401 15.090600
2025-05-18 0.766875 1.426619 2.479142 4.219554 6.947121 10.960890 17.185411
2025-05-25 0.577716 1.176811 2.202732 4.005733 6.987129 11.582438 19.010480
2025-06-01 0.468414 1.035669 2.070394 3.988658 7.311048 12.638105 21.555133
2025-06-08 0.389562 0.930585 1.977298 4.015343 7.696441 13.810932 24.368098
2025-06-15 0.322133 0.830561 1.872348 3.998777 7.995613 14.858652 27.055106
2025-06-22 0.250516 0.701662 1.684715 3.793714 7.925886 15.268488 28.707967
2025-06-29 0.208714 0.629733 1.598606 3.769789 8.179353 16.247989 31.391184
2025-07-06 0.174129 0.565672 1.516290 3.738459 8.409592 17.198177 34.087020
2025-07-13 0.159299 0.551089 1.546183 3.955524 9.165783 19.194407 38.839774
2025-07-20 0.141620 0.523607 1.540655 4.094350 9.779723 20.979375 43.349235
2025-07-27 0.129421 0.508882 1.563815 4.301435 10.557695 23.139519 48.707454
2025-08-03 0.109135 0.462014 1.494663 4.280232 10.842653 24.359400 52.377250
2025-08-10 0.087116 0.400988 1.373693 4.112193 10.781894 24.880457 54.735811
2025-08-17 0.068103 0.342579 1.245747 3.903215 10.599137 25.129705 56.569053
2025-08-24 0.057646 0.312630 1.194744 3.886544 10.859841 26.318068 60.349895
2025-08-31 0.049784 0.290076 1.161528 3.912639 11.224789 27.754336 64.726283
2025-09-07 0.042249 0.265517 1.115986 3.896446 11.482871 28.976408 68.736497
2025-09-14 0.032866 0.227108 1.013331 3.695997 11.251579 29.094946 70.434715
2025-09-21 0.027762 0.207530 0.972141 3.672613 11.473775 30.249720 74.413632